Prediction Models & Leg Grading
Every fixture is quantitatively graded on a 0–100 scale. Only legs scoring ≥ 75 qualify for official publication in our Anchor and Core tiers.
Joint Probability Combo Builder
Model how probabilities multiply down. Understand why stacking low-odds legs drastically reduces your mathematical strike rate.
74.5%
3 independent legs multiplied1.38
Ticket total return multiplierCurrent Ticket Legs
Add Custom Leg to Test
The 5 Leg-Grading Quantitative Inputs
UEFA Coefficient / Elo Gap
Gap > 5x: favourite scores in ~90% of home/away ties.
Season-Phase Asymmetry
Mid-season rhythm (Nordics/Baltics) v pre-season rust (POR/NED/GRE) — major European qualification inefficiency.
Defensive Leakage & Transition Gap
Recent concession rate in competitive and qualifying fixtures.
First-Leg Context & Game State
Away favourites manage risk in first legs — supports team totals, caps Over 2.5.
Odds Implied Probability Cross-Check
Model probability must strictly exceed odds-implied probability, otherwise the leg is skipped.
Note on Market Liquidity & Efficiency
Hyper-efficient markets like the English Premier League have tight bookmaker margins and global liquidity. Our highest statistical alpha occurs in European qualifying ties and regional domestic leagues where information asymmetry is pronounced.